Wednesday 25 April 2012

‘How Nigeria can prevent disintegration’ - General Alani Akinrinade (rtd)



Former Chief of Defence Staff General Alani Akinrinade (rtd) spoke with Deputy Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU on national security, Southwest integration, national conference and other issues.

What is your reaction to the agitations for a national conference in the country?
We need to debate, discuss what is really going on in our country. A lot of information has been dished out from all sections of the country, some panacea to problems bedeviling the country. Yoruba has always been in the leadership in this kind of situation. We have always made it clear that we want to be part of Nigeria, we want a very strong country, and we need to fashion out how we can make that strong country come about.
We realise that the Igbo in the East are talking, Southsouth people, especially the Ijaw Congress, are talking and bringing out ideas. Now, the northerners are also talking and bringing out ideas and accepting that this is not a great federation, and that, if we are not careful, we are dancing on the brink, according to Cambell, and therefore, we should do something.  Yoruba, since 2005, made a major contribution to this debate by meeting in Ibadan. We got a Yoruba Agenda for Nigeria at that time. It spelt out the way the Yoruba saw Nigeria and what ought to be done to make sure that it becomes a strong country that works, like a nation, not an amorphorous country, a big country, almost a giant as you call it, having a clay feet. We brought out that document in 2005, hoping there was going to be a genuine conference as stated by Obasanjo at that time. That position today is still valid, except there are some issues which we raised at that time. That time, the memory of the June 12 debacle was still fresh in our memory and in 1999, certainly, Yoruba did not participate well in the elections, simply because the issues that preceded the elections were never touched. Yoruba thought that an attempt to ignore the issues by saying that democracy is the answer by just having elections, even if it was a good election, was not a good way of building a good nation. We played along simply because there was no other way of doing it. May be, we were wrong. May be, we were right. We played along and the end result is what we have today. 
Why is national debate necessary at this time in Nigeria?
The foundation was wrong. We should be courageous enough to dismantle the foundation, make a new foundation and strive to build earnestly  on it. That is the meeting we are meeting.
What are those unresolved national questions which tend to make Yoruba uncomfortable under the fragile and lopsided federal arrangement?
There are mirage of problems. All of us seem to agree that it started right from the beginning of trying to couple together a country. It looks like the French were coming from the west and Germans coming from east and the British stopped them and gave them a territory. The north was administered separately, the south administered separately, Lagos administered separately. Everything was like an afterthought. They forcefully put us together and amalgamated us and called us Nigeria. They made mess of the organisations in that territories and now we are inheritors of the problem. The sad part of it is that, over the years, we sat down there suffering. We didn’t have the courage to say that this would not work, let us sit down and talk. The closest we got to that was at the beginning with Sadauna talking about differences and Awolowo saying that it is a set of nations coupled together; it is just a country, not a nation. I can’t remember Azikiwe’s position. But at least, there were some of our leaders who knew that, certainly, something was basically wrong with the way we were put together. Till tomorrow, it is not going to be possible for a country of over 150 million people to go to the United Nations and have one seat, have no language of their own to speak there, when the rest of the world have their languages being translated. That is what they do for Portugal, which is less than two states in this place. We shortchange ourselves. We have Yoruba, over 40 million; we have Hausa/Fulani, Igbo. They are bigger than 40 other countries in the world. We don’t have a language which the world can recognise in writing, in speaking, in drama. And we expect that we are going to build a nation? I doubt it.
Recently, Yoruba self-determination groups advocated the restructuring of Nigeria into 18 federating unions. Is that part of the agenda you are going to discuss?
Many organisations have their own ideas. I have been dealing with the Ijaw Congress for long and I know they have their ideas about how Nigeria should be restructured. The Ibos have their ideas. I visited Dim Odumegwu-Ojukwu many times. We discussed nothing but Nigeria. So do Yoruba. What I know is that in Yorubaland, we are not going to sleep and put our heads on one side. We will hold robust discussions before we make major decisions. Some are talking about 18, others about six zones. Those are the issues we must look at rationally and see the one that will work. That is what Yoruba will bring up as a proposal to the table, ready to defend it and ready to compromise, if people bring out better and more workable solutions. Yoruba will accept good argument. I don’t know the number that will come at the end, but I think it will be nice for Yoruba to have whatever you want to call it now, whether it is state, or region, or whatever; to agree among themselves how to arrange it a way that every facet of Yoruba power will be projected in a way that will work for all of us. Of course, we will encourage others; Ijaw, Ibos and others; to try to do the same among themselves. Then, we will all agree at the centre where we relate and call ourselves Nigeria or whatever new name they give it, what we have to be doing together and how we have to be doing it. But what we have now, which is a do-or-die affair, that a Yoruba man should be President so that Yoruba can lord it over others, or Ijaw or Ibos, is not good. We are going to a dangerous crossroads now where Ibos think it is their turn, because it is turn by turn now, where Jonathan said he is entitled to eight years, where the northerners are saying, wait a minute, how long are you going to keep us out of this. It should never be like that. We should have a situation where we will have the best person who will move us forward, whether he is from the minority tribe or not. But we should try to create a situation where it is not a winner-takes-all affair. No country ever gets up into reckoning under that situation. You talk about unity in diversity and you start asking people to level down, to lower the bar all the time. Look at education today. It is the lowering of the bar that got us where we are today. 
Are the elite across the zones ready for national debate?
There is an indication that virtually everyone, including those who said that the situation was good, are saying that it is enough and that we should really sit down and talk. Ango Abdullahi was the last one. I was fairly shocked when I read his interview. These are the people who would think that it is the way we run our government that is wrong, that it is the people that have problem, not the system. Some of us have argued that it is the system itself that is the beginning of the trouble. Now, they are coming to that idea right now. Some say the Southsouth is asking for what is too much. It is when we sit down across the table to discuss that we will be able to look rationally at all these demands. I have a good idea that, with or without the government, the people are likely to sit down to talk. We are really on the brink now, unless we are deceiving ourselves. We always deceive ourselves that we will get out of the dilemma, that we created the problem and that it will blow away. It does not seem to be blowing away at all. 
What is your reaction to the menace of Boko Haram?
I am scared when I see people writing and talking about what government should do about Boko Haram. It is historical. In the military, we know that when this type of problem starts, it is a problem. We say rebels with a cause. You better don’t sleep. You better take it very seriously. They may be like a rag tag army now, but a rag tag army that is killing seven people, 10 people at a time, it is no more a rag tag. What is the real problem? They are talking about poverty, nature of our polity, people recruiting thugs and abandoning them. Meanwhile, Boko Haram is talking about religion and we are dismissing it. The religious aspect of it is not what we can really throw away. I think we really have to find a time when we are going to sit at the table and talk to the handlers of Boko Haram and the people who live with them and explain to them that this is a sect that is embedded in the society. And that is always the beginning of guerilla warfare. They are getting themselves into a place where people will respect them, fear them and where they can do whatever they like. It takes years to do it. And this has been going on for some time. When they finally do that, they will then become urban guerilla and the rest of us are in problem. The urban guerilla does not want to take over government. He just does not want the rest of us to sleep. It is as simple as that. You won’t be able to walk into the supermarket with confidence. You will not enter train with confidence or aircraft with confidence because somebody can blow things off. You don’t have to offend him. We are all enemies. I don’t know what is happening in Abuja and how many people are meeting and looking at these things. This is not a matter you look at militarily alone, you look at it politically. You have to go back to history to look at how these matters were dealt with. Don’t forget about IRA. Prime Ministers would say, you don’t talk to rebels, terrorists, until the burnt and destroyed important places. They blew up the airport, part of the airport. These things were happening in Ireland. It took them more than twenty years to do that. London was not comfortable. So, we don’t have that luxury at all. We just have to find an answer to it.
Some people are calling for the break up of the country...
When people are frustrated, they say all sorts of things, but we don’t want Nigeria to break up. But we don’t want Yoruba to be parasitic. They say bigger tribes are oppressing other smaller tribes. Yoruba is a big tribe. Then, they think Yoruba is a culprit. That does not mean that we should go ahead and break the country. Bu honestly, if we are not careful, it might be worse than a break up. Ango says they can look after themselves as northerners. It is very true. There is no part of this country that cannot look after itself. What has happened was that somebody spoilt us by putting oil money on the table all the times and people go there and collect. And we run a deficit budget. Can you believe that this last budget had over N1 trillion deficit? Meanwhile, in a spate of three months, they had located over N1 trillion looted by a few people; permanent secretaries, parastatal bosses, politicians. Why running a deficit budget when trillions are in private pockets illegally in their bedrooms? This system is killing the country. It is our duty to get together and salvage it. Some people are fed up with it that they will not want to hear the name Nigeria. If you present your passport to an immigration officer in any country, including Ghana, he looks at you and thinks that it is from Oluwole. That is how big we are in the world.
What are Yoruba leaders doing about the Yoruba language that is dying?
We have a Yoruba Academy, thanks to the younger people who have that dream to resuscitate the language. We have not forced ourselves to use the language. The constitution does not prevent us, our lawmakers from using the language in our region, in their discussions, debates, or even producing Yoruba Hansard, which we might translate into English for other people to understand. It does not prevent us from using it in our schools. I think it is a psychological problem that we have. We just have to work at it. 
 I know that, within the Yoruba hierarchy, people are torched by the possibility that our language, our culture, our tradition, some of the things we inherited, especially our prowess in education, are beginning to fizzle away under their watch. If we are let on our own and we don’t have this oil money coming every month, or week, and we have to rely on our own strength the way we did before, people are going to get sober and make sacrifice. How can I get N3million a month and i will be sober? It is not very likely. That is what is going on everywhere. The councillor that represents me in my village earns a bigger salary than the principal of the Anglican Grammar School that is in the front of my house. That school has 2,000 kids, JSS and SSS. The wife of the councillor, the first lady, earns more than the principal. That is madness. In that council, we have people who can represent us without taking salary and make more impact on the lives of villagers more than the councillor who did not pass his school certificate exams. It is all over Nigeria. When there is no money to maintain thugs, there will be no thug.
Is Yoruba integration a minus to national integration?
I am happy to be a Yoruba man  because we are always forward looking. We try hard to tackle problem before it becomes very knotty. People who live in contiguous villages talk with each other and think about how to benefit one another, share water and resources. It is better than to do things individually. That is not Yoruba way of doing things. I think it is a precursor of what should be happening in other regions and eventually the country. It is in our interest to integrate through infrastructural development. 
Election is holding in 2015 and Americans are warning that it may also be a year of Armageddon for Nigeria. What is your reaction?
I read Cambell and saw the report. If we are honest people, does somebody has to warn us from America? We can see it ourselves. It is coming. It is staring us in the face. What facet of our life does not point to disintegration? Is it the economy, politics, cultural standing? Are we holding the rightful position in the world? Do we get respect in the world? We just contested in the World Bank. I was laughing at our stupidity.   

Nigerians, Stop Running Away from your Shadows – Rudolf Ogoo Okonkwo



Sometime in the late 1980s, I found myself studying inside Ahmadu Bello University Library. I love libraries. I particularly liked this one because it was well stocked compared to most libraries of universities in the Southern parts of Nigeria. At Ahmadu Bello University library, William Shakespeare, for instance, had three rows of book shelves dedicated to his works and works on his works.
In the course of my peeping into books, I came across this book of poetry called, The Hallowed Men by T. S. Eliot. As I flipped through this book, I found few lines that have stayed with me ever since. I have quoted them to virtually anyone who had the misfortune of speaking to me for an hour or more. The lines go thus:
Between the idea
And the reality
Between the motion
And the act
Falls the Shadow…
I know that the shadow is important but I did not know how important it is until I saw the book called The Shadow Effect by Deepak Chopra, Debbie Ford, and Marianne Williamson. This book written by three great teachers explains how the shadow is the primary obstacle stopping us from attaining happiness. They concluded that the only way to behold the potentials in us and reach our authentic self is to embrace our shadow and not to deny it.
The Igbo says that nothing stands alone. When something stands, something else stands beside it. It means that there is always something dual about us- the good, the bad, light and dark, night and day, the sweet, the bitter. They are both needed to achieve wholeness. They play complementary role in our lives. One cannot live without the other. The shadow is connected to the soul.
The unmanaged shadow is what keeps many of us in the past. It drags us down, crushes our power, softens our creativity and defers our dreams. It closes our physical, emotional and spiritual paths that we find it difficult to blossom.
“You only have to gaze around you at the natural world to see the proof that beauty, form, order, and growth have survived for billions of years,” Deepak Chopra said. “In dealing with your shadow, you are aligning yourself with the same infinite power. The shadow isn’t a fearsome opponent but a worthy one. Powerful as it is, the power of wholeness is infinitely greater, and by a miracle of creation, it is within your grasp.”
According to Debbie Ford, you are haunted by your shadow if you spend more time worrying about other people’s opinion of you. You are haunted by your shadow if you are deeply resigned about the conditions of your life. You are haunted by your shadow if you interpret your mistakes as evidence that you are incompetent.
“In trying to express only those aspects of ourselves that we believe will guarantee us the acceptance of others, we suppress some of our most valuable and interesting features and sentence ourselves to a life of reenacting the same outworn scripts,” Debbie Ford added. “Reclaiming the parts of ourselves that we have relegated to the shadow is the most reliable path to actualizing all of our human potential. Once befriended, our shadow becomes a divine map that—when properly read and followed—reconnects us to the life we were meant to live and the people we were meant to be.”
Do you feel phony at all times? Are you always complaining? Do you always do things you regret? Do you feel inadequate and unworthy? Are you unwilling to say the truth because it runs contrary to the opinions of others? Are you always trying to avert disaster in your life? Do you feel bad luck follows you around? Are you always misunderstood and taken advantage of?
If so, it’s your shadow that is haunting you. It will continue to haunt you until it kills you.
As a nation, we, Nigerians feel phony. We complain a lot. We do things we regret. We feel inadequate and unworthy. We fear the truth. We are always trying to avert one disaster after another. It looks as if bad luck is always following us around. We are taken advantage of.
Each time we refuse to hold a national conference to discuss the way forward for Nigeria, we are running away from our shadows. Each time we find the reason not to tackle corruption, we are running away from our shadows.
“We’re often afraid of looking at our shadow because we want to avoid the shame or embarrassment that comes along with admitting mistakes,” Marianne Williamson said. “We feel that if we take a deep look at ourselves, we’ll be too exposed. But the thing we should actually fear is not looking at it, for our denial of the shadow is exactly what fuels it. One day I looked at something in myself that I had been avoiding because it was too painful. Yet once I did, I had an unexpected surprise. Rather than self-hatred, I was flooded with compassion for myself because I realized the pain necessary to develop that coping mechanism to begin with.”
No matter how fast we run, we cannot run away from our shadow. We have to turn around and confront it. Until we do so, it will keep pursuing us.

Tuesday 24 April 2012

8th annual African Movie Academy Awards (AMAA) & List Of Winners


Popular Ghanaian actor Majid Michel and Nigerian Nollywood starRita Dominic last night clinched the top prizes as ‘Africa’s best’ in the world of movies as they walked away with the ‘Best Actor’ and ‘Best Actress’ awards at the 2012 edition of the African Movie Academy Awards (AMAA).

Majid picked up the coveted award for his lead role in the 2011 movie ‘Somewhere In Africa’ while the ever radiant-looking Dominic won the ‘Best Actress’ award for her lead role in the movie ‘Shattered’ beating the likes of Nse Ikpe-Etim, Uche Jombo and Yvonne Okoro.
The biggest win of the night however went to the South African movie ‘How to Steal 2 Million’ which bagged four awards, the highest of the night. Directed by Charlie Vundla, the movie bagged the awards for ‘Best Film’, ‘Best Actress in a Supporting Role’, ‘Best Actor in a Supporting Role’ and ‘Best Director’.
Lancelot Oduwa Imaseun’s ‘Adesuwa’ followed closely winning three awards which includes ‘Best Nigerian Film’. Kunle Afolayan’s ‘Phone Swap wasn’t left out as it won the ‘Achievement in Production Design’ award while Akin Omotoso won the ‘Special Jury’ award for ‘Man on the Ground’.
The awards which was held at the Expo Hall of the Eko Hotel and Suites was attended by a host of Nollywood actors, movie practitioners and industry players including Actors’ Guild of Nigeria (AGN) president Segun Arinze, former AGN boss Ejike AsiegbuTee-MacFlorence Ita-Giwa, Airtel Chairman Oba Otudeko and many others.
The show was hosted by Haitian-born Jimmy Jean-Louis and Nigerian actor OC Ukeje.
Hollywood stars present at the show include Morris Chestnut, Lynn Whitfield, Maya Gilbert andRockmond Dumbar.
Check out the full list below…
AMAA 2012 BEST SHORT FILM

Braids On Bald Head – Nigeria - Winner
JAMAA – Uganda
Look Again – Kenya
Maffe Tiga – Guinea
Hidden Life – South Africa
Mwansa The Great – Zimbabwe
Chumo – Tanzania
The Young Smoker – Nigeria
AMAA 2012 BEST DOCUMENTARY

African Election – Nigeria / Germany – Winner
Beyond The Deadly Pit – Rwanda
Awa Ogbe An African Adventure – Algeria
Dear Mandella – South Africa
White & Black, Crime And Colour – Tanzania
The Niger Delta Struggle – Ghana
There Is Nothing Wrong With My Uncle – Nigeria
How Much Is Too Much – Kenya
AMAA 2012 BEST DIASPORA FEATURE

Toussanat Louverture – France – Winner
Ghetta Life – Jamaica
High Chicago – Canada
Elza – Guadelupe
Better Must Come – Jamaica
Kinyanrwanda – USA
AMAA 2012 BEST DIASPORA DOCUMENTARY

The Education of Auma Obama – Germany – Winner
White Wash – USA
Almendron Mi Corazon – Guadeloupe
All Me The Life And Times Of Winfred Hubert – USA
AMAA 2012 BEST DIASPORA (SHORT FILM)

White Sugar In A Black Pot – USA-Winner
John Doe – USA
The Lost One – USA

AMAA 2012 BEST ANIMATION
The Legend Of Ngog Hills – Kenya - Winner
Oba – Nigeria
Climate Change Is Real – Kenya
Egu – South Africa
Chomoka – Kenya
AMAA 2012 BEST FILM BY AN AFRICAN LIVING ABROAD

Mystery Of Birds – USA / Nigeria – WinnerHousemates – United Kingdom / Nigeria
Ben Kross – Italy / Nigeria
Paparezzi Eye In The Dark – USA / Nigeria / Ghana
AMAA 2012 ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN

Phone Swap – Nigeria- Winner
Somewhere In Africa – Ghana
Otelo Burning – South Africa
Adesuwa – Nigeria
How To Steal 2 Million – South Africa
AMAA 2012 ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN

Adesuwa – Nigeria – WinnerThe Captain Of Nakara
Rugged Priest – Kenya
Somewhere In Africa – Ghana
Queens Desire
AMAA 2012 ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKE-UP

Shattered – Kenya – Winner
Rugged Priest – Kenya
State Research Bureau – Uganda
Adesuwa – Nigeria
Somewhere in Africa – Ghana
AMAA 2012 ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUNDTRACK

Alero’s Symphony – Nigeria – Winner
Otelo Burning – South Africa
Adesuwa – Nigeria
How To Steal 2 Million – South Africa
Somewhere In Africa – Ghana
AMAA 2012 ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Adesuwa – Nigeria – Winner
Behind The Mask
Somewhere In Africa – Ghana
State Research Bureau – Uganda
Otelo Burning – South Africa 
AMAA 2012 ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND
State Of Violence – South Africa – Winner
Otelo Burning – South Africa
How To Steal 2 Million – South Africa
Man On Ground – South Africa
Algiers Murder – South Africa
AMAA 2012 ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Othelo Burning – South Africa - Winner
How To Steal 2 Million – South Africa
Rugged Priest – Kenya
Masquerades – Ghana
Man On Ground – South Africa / Nigeria 
AMAA 2012 ACHIEVEMENT IN EDITING
How To Steal 2 Million – South Africa – Winner
Algiers Murder – South Africa
Man On Ground – South Africa / Nigeria
Unwanted Guest – Nigeria
Otelo Burning – South Africa
Alero’s Symphony – Nigeria
AMAA 2012 ACHIEVEMENT IN SCREENPLAY
Ties That Bind – Ghana – WinnerMr & Mrs – Nigeria
How To Steal 2 Million – South Africa
Otelo Burning – South Africa
Unwanted Guest – Nigeria
Two Brides And A Baby – Nigeria
AMAA 2012 BEST NIGERIAN FILM
Adesuwa – Winner
Unwanted Guest
Family On Fire
Alero’s Symphony
Phone Swap 
AMAA 2012 BEST FILM IN AN AFRICAN LANGUAGE
State Of Violence – South Africa – WinnerChumo – Tanzania
Family On Fire – Nigeria
Otelo Burning – South Africa
Asoni – Cameroun
AMAA 2012 BEST CHILD ACTOR
Tsepang Mohlomi (Ntwe) – Otelo Burning – WinnerRahman Junior Bande (Greg) – Behind The Mask
Reginna Danies (Jenny) – Bank Job
Benjamin Abemigisha and Racheal Nduhukire (Derick and Margaret) – JAMAA
Ayinla O Abdulaheem – ZR-7
AMAA 2012 BEST YOUNG / PROMISING ACTOR
Ivie Okujaye (Alero) – Alero’s Symphony – WinnerNeo Ntatleno (OJ) – State Of Violence
Iyobosa Olaye (Adesuwa) – Adesuwa
Martha Ankomah – Somewhere In Africa
Thomas Gumede and Sihle Xaba – Otelo Burning
AMAA 2012 BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Fano Mokoena – Man On Ground – WinnerRapuldna Seiphemo (Twala) – How To Steal 2 Million
Hafiz Oyetoro – Phone Swap
Okechukwu Uzoesi – Two Brides And A Baby
Godfrey Theobejane – 48
Lwanda Jawar – Rugged Priest
AMAA 2012 BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Terry Phetto – How To Steal 2 Million – WinnerEbbe Bassey – Ties That Bind
Empress Njamah – Bank Job
Ngozi Ezeonu – Adesuwa
Thelma Okoduwa – Mr & Mrs
Omotola Jalade Ekeinde – Ties That Bind
AMAA 2012 BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Majid Micheal – Somewhere In Africa – WinnerMenzi Ngubane – How To Steal 2 Million
Chet Anekwe – Unwanted Guest
Jafta Mamabolo – Otelo Burning
Karabo Lance – 48
Wale Ojo – Phone Swap
Hakeem Kae-Kazim – Man On Ground
AMAA 2012 BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Rita Dominic – Shattered – Winner
Nse Ikpe Etim – Mr & Mrs
Yvonne Okoro – Single Six
Ama K. Abebrese – Ties That Bind
Uche Jombo – Damage
Millicent Makheido – 48
Kudzai Sevenzo-Nyarai – Playing Warriors
AMAA 2012 BEST DIRECTOR
How To Steal 2 Million – Charlie Vundla – WinnerAdesuwa – Lancelot Oduwa Imaseun
Ties That Bind – Leila Djansi
Rugged Priest – Bob Nyanja
State Of Violence – Khalo Matabane
Man On Ground – Akin Omotoso
Otelo Burning – Sara Bletcher
AMAA 2012 PRIZE FOR BEST FILM

How To Steal 2 Million – South Africa – Winner
State Of Violence – South Africa
Adesuwa – Nigeria
Otelo Burning – South Africa
Rugged Priest – Kenya
Ties That Bind – Ghana
Man On Ground – South Africa / Nigeria

Upheaval in West Africa: Could Nigeria Be Next?




The recent coups in Guinea-Bissau and Mali raise question regarding whether radical political change will sweep other parts of west and sub-Saharan Africa. The region is of course no stranger to dramatic and frequent political change, with 26 successful coups have occurred between 1963 and 2000. While the past decade has been quiet by comparison, recent events in Guinea-Bissau and Mali appear to indicate a rising propensity for the region's militaries to reassert power at the expense of democracy.
In Mali, the Tuareg have maintained a fierce sense of independence despite numerous peace agreements having been signed with the government -- most recently in 2008. Ongoing grievances over the lack of investment and perpetual military involvement in the North have created underlying tension that prompted a mutiny by the armed forces which spiraled into the coup. Mali's military capitalized on the instability that is inherent in any fragmented state, but the ease with which it was able to sweep into power is a concern, as it represents the clear failure of a structural foundation to support the country's nascent democracy. So many Malians had become disenchanted with their country's political system and widespread corruption that the initial attempts to visit Mali by West African leaders following the coup were rebuffed by sympathetic crowds.
Guinea-Bissau's situation is somewhat different, the country having experienced at least six political assassinations and three attempted coups over the past three years -- making it by far the most coup prone country in Africa. Although a connection between events in Mali and Guinea-Bissau is perhaps therefore tenuous, it is a reminder (as if one were needed) that political change is an ever-present component of the landscape in many parts of Africa.
Having a democratic tradition spanning 32 years, Mali would not appear to be the most obvious contender for non-democratic change, but the rapid collapse of the government indicates that simply paying lip service to democracy will not prevent political upheaval. While the dramatic change of government in Libya may have contributed to the coup in Mali, events in both Guinea-Bissau and Mali remind us how fragile democracy in many West African states is. A combination of populations divided ethnically and/or religiously, weak central government control, and rising disillusionment by a greater percentage of citizens -- who object to rampant corruption and a failure on the part of the central government to deliver basic needs -- reinforces underlying fragility. And given that these fragile democracies often coexist with militaries who are underpaid and also disillusioned, it comes as no surprise that perceived security threats are often used as an excuse to promote political change.
So what does all this imply for Nigeria? Since the unification of Northern and Southern Nigeria in 1914, the country has long struggled to create a cohesive national identity. As a result of the inherent ethnic and religious tension between north and south, the Salafist movement Boko Haram (BH) has recently made its presence felt through a series of attacks on a variety of targets in the north. Since the movement's birth in 2003 it has maintained opposition to a secular government in Abuja, with the aim of making the country ungovernable. BH has changed its strategy -- moving away from attacking security forces and focusing instead on attempting to inflame existing sectarian tensions by targeting civilians. This is a particularly worrisome development considering the volatility of Nigeria's ethnic and religious fault lines.
Although much of the violence occurs along ethnic and religious lines, many of the underlying grievances that BH have been able to exploit revolve around perceived inequality between the north and south, especially regarding who is (and is not) benefiting from the nation's oil wealth. Despite Nigeria's booming economy -- with growth rates ranging between 5.4 percent and 7.9 percent from 2005 to 2010 -- the central government has failed to distribute oil revenues equitably. During the same period, the number of people living in absolute poverty actually rose, with those in the north faring worse than their southern counterparts. Similar to Mali, Nigeria has struggled to integrate the north of the country economically, resulting in further polarization along religious and ethnic lines.
Political relations in the country have also worsened since President Jonathon decided to break the implicit agreement he made with the country's political groups that leadership would rotate between northern and southern candidates every two terms. As he now attempts to push through a host of reformist policies the president faces strong opposition from influential northern politicians. Both Babangida and Gusau -- who vied with Jonathon for PDP leadership in the 2011 election -- have the potential to seriously undermine his government if they cannot find common ground. Concessions would most likely come from revisions to the Petroleum Industry Bill, the manner in which the Sovereign Wealth Fund operates, and, ultimately, granting amnesty to relatively moderate BH members. While such concessions would be damaging to Jonathan's reformist agenda, they would also likely result in a significant erosion of political support for BH.
This presents Jonathon with a serious conundrum: BH presently benefits from grass root support in the north of the country and its current campaign to raise sectarian tension is leaving the government in an increasingly weakened position. Given the rising potential for serious civil strife in the future, Nigeria's military may believe it has no choice but to intervene in the political process. Unfortunately for Jonathon, one of the most viable strategies for subduing the BH threat is to make concessions to northern political elites, but doing so runs the risk of jeopardizing long overdue progress against corruption and how the country's oil wealth is managed, which themselves are key to improving the governance and thus the stability of the country.
While the coups in Guinea-Bissau and Mali may not have immediate ramifications for Nigeria, the government would be smart to bear them in mind as it grapples with its plethora of problems. Maintaining strained relations across disparate regions is no recipe for a secure democracy, and in an ever shrinking world there is no telling when an external event may suddenly alter the balance -- as returning Tuareg fighters did in Mali. With its own pockmarked history of military juntas, Nigeria is of course no stranger to coups, and while the professionalization of its military and the country's rising prominence internationally would appear to make a coup less likely, the threat BH poses cannot be overlooked.
If BH achieves its aim of making Nigeria ungovernable, any outcome suddenly becomes conceivable, given Nigeria's modern political history. Preventing BH from exploiting sectarian tension is therefore paramount, but shoring up the support of northern political figures while driving through a reformist agenda will be no easy task. How resilient Nigeria will be to a future coup depends on whether president Jonathon is able to balance these two objectives. It is important to remember that Nigeria's return to democracy was only a dozen years ago. Given Nigeria's tumultuous political history, the propensity of its military to seize power, and the nature of current political change in North and West Africa, many Nigerians must be wishing their own democratic political foundation was a bit more entrenched.
Daniel Wagner is CEO of Country Risk Solutions, a cross-border risk consulting firm based in Connecticut (USA), Director of Global Strategy with the PRS Group, and author of the new book Managing Country Risk (www.managingcountryrisk.com).


Joshua Wallace is a research analyst with CRS.

Joshua can be followed on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/JLP_Wallace

Follow Daniel Wagner on Twitter: www.twitter.com/countryriskmgmt