Nigeria: In search of a Lula

by Suleiman's blog

 

When Nigeria’s former military president Ibrahim Babangida was forced to ‘step aside’ in 1993 after eight years in office, he retired to his palatial hilltop mansion in Minna. He left office as one of the most unpopular personalities in the country. Similarly, when former president Olusegun Obasanjo left office after eight years in 2007, he retired to another hilltop palace in Abeokuta, also highly unpopular. By contrast, when Brazil’s former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva or “Lula” left office after eight years with approval ratings of 80 percent, he retired to a nondescript apartment.

At the time Babangida left office, the country was in serious political and economic turmoil after the longest political transition anywhere in the world. It is true that his administration initiated some positive reforms, but the toga of corruption that hung over his government left a shadow of doubt about the efficacy and sustainability of some of those reforms. Whatever vestige of a legacy he had left was eroded by his annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential elections.

Similarly, credit (if grudgingly) must be given to some of the initiatives of the Obasanjo administration. However, the massive corruption that also characterized his administration and failure to improve infrastructure, particularly roads and power left serious credibility gaps. The major undoing of Obasanjo, as with Babangida, was his desire to hang on to power at all cost. And like Babangida before him, history will not judge them by what little they achieved, but by their failed bids to remain in power against popular sentiment and the damage they both inflicted on our democracy. At least, they both have their huge hilltop (if largely empty) mansions to console them.

Compare these two leaders to Brazil’s Lula and one can only reiterate what Chinua Achebe said: Nigeria’s problem is that of leadership. Before Lula became president, Brazil was known for its world-class footballers, beautiful beaches and as the biggest debtor nation in the world. Beneath these facts also lay the truth that the country had one of the widest economic apartheids in the world: less than five percent of the country’s elite owned or controlled over 95 percent of Brazil’s wealth.

Incidentally, Nigeria and Brazil share certain similarities. (Brazil and Nigeria were joined before being torn apart by primordial geologic forces). Brazil has the largest population in South America while Nigeria has the largest population in Africa; both estimated to hit 200 million soon. Both countries suffered military intervention in politics. Both countries also have cultural and ethnic diversities and with huge swathes of the population living in poverty. Then God gave Brazil Lula. Or put another way, they discarded primeval instincts and elected a patriot.

Lula created many highly successful anti-poverty programs, such as Bolsa Família (Family Allowance) and Fome Zero (Zero Hunger). Financial aid was given to more than 12 million poor Brazilian families on condition that their children attend school and get vaccinated. This has become the largest conditional cash transfer program in the world, and has reduced poverty in Brazil by more than 27%. Lula has transformed Brazil from one of the world’s largest foreign debtor nations to a net creditor.

Brazil is set to overtake France and the United Kingdom as the world’s fifth-largest economy as early as 2025. And with Rio de Janeiro having won the right to host the football World Cup in 2014 and the Olympics in 2016, more development will take place. With transparent leadership, Brazil is firing on all cylinders and is currently one of the fastest growing economies in the world. And that is just the beginning for a country that has vast tourism and industrial potential. The economy is not dependent on crude oil alone. Embraer (ERJ) is Brazilian company and is now the world’s third-largest manufacturer of passenger jets after Boeing and Airbus.

Once the most debt-ridden country in the world, Brazil’s fiscal budget is now in surplus- she is a net creditor. Brazil boasts large-trade surpluses and foreign reserves of about $300 billion. Brazil today is the world’s largest exporter of coffee, sugar, chicken, beef and orange juice. In recent years, the country has become the second-biggest destination for foreign direct investment into developing countries after China.

The message is simple: as the elections approach, we must elect the candidate that is closest to Lula in terms of honesty, patriotism and simplicity. Religion and ethnicity must not befuddle our thinking. One inspired leader can make all the difference.